Publication 17.09.2025

CIO Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026

Thomas Friedberger

Thomas Friedberger

Deputy CEO & Co-CIO of Tikehau Capital

Thomas Friedberger

Nina Majstorovic

Investment Specialist, Capital Markets Strategies, Tikehau Capital

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At a glance

The global investment landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by the rising influence of governments in economic affairs, massive capital expenditure needs, the acceleration of artificial intelligence and the growth of the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, US-China relations, whose evolution could reshape global economic dynamics, and Europe’s growing imperative to strengthen its sovereignty are key trends that must be considered when determining long-term allocation strategies.

In Tikehau Capital’s CIO Outlook Report for 2026, we share a review of our insights for 2025, forecast trends for 2026 and beyond, and highlight the major investment opportunities these trends represent.

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What to expect in this Outlook Report?

Our 2025 convictions have been confirmed: government intervention in economic affairs has become structural, driving unprecedented public debt levels and strategic investments. The CapEx boom across decarbonisation, defence, deglobalisation, and digitalisation is accelerating, while the rapid development of AI and the multipolar growth of the Indo-Pacific region continue to reshape global dynamics.

Looking ahead, the evolving US-China relationship will be pivotal, raising questions about the sustainability of American exceptionalism and the emergence of credible alternatives to the US dollar. Europe is positioned as a significant investment opportunity, supported amongst other by fiscal stimulus, healthy banking systems, and attractive valuations. Key investment themes include European sovereignty, private debt secondaries and real estate.

Main investment opportunities
for 2026

European sovereignty

European sovereignty

Building Resilience through Defence, Cybersecurity, and Decarbonisation

Private Debt Secondaries

Private Debt Secondaries

Unlocking Value and Diversification in Private Credit Markets

Real Estate

Real Estate

Strategic Opportunities in Value-Add Assets and Real Estate Debt

Highlights

We see European sovereignty as a major investment opportunity and have done so for several years.

The private debt secondaries have emerged as a dynamic segment within the broader secondary market, historically focused on private equity assets. We believe that the secondary private debt market is set to grow at the same pace, if not faster, than the primary market as investors adopt a more active approach to portfolio management.

The real estate sector appears to be returning to equilibrium after the severe turbulence caused by sharp interest rate hikes in 2022/2023. Investment volumes are showing signs of stabilisation and could gradually gain momentum as confidence returns.

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