Publication 05.09.2024

CIO Outlook
Looking ahead to 2025

Thomas Friedberger

Thomas Friedberger

Deputy CEO & Co-CIO of Tikehau Capital

Thomas Friedberger

Nina Majstorovic

Investment Specialist, Capital Markets Strategies, Tikehau Capital

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At a glance

The global shift from an economic model on endless growth, driven by low or even negative interest rates and prioritising efficiency and optimisation, to a more localised approach that values resilience, is paving the way for significant changes in our economies and investment strategies.

In Tikehau Capital’s CIO Outlook Report for 2025, we share a review of our insights for 2024, forecast trends for 2025 and beyond, and highlight the major investment opportunities these trends represent.

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What to expect in this Outlook Report?

Looking back on our previous edition, we had expressed our belief that this paradigm shift would have four main consequences that would shape 2024: Value creation founded on resilience at the expense of efficiency, misalignment of interests between central banks and governments, rising cost of both capital and liquidity, and structurally higher risk premiums. With the end of 2024 coming into view, we open this edition with a look back at these four points.

After that, we discuss what we think will be the trends to watch in 2025, namely: increasing government intervention in economic affairs, the steep rise in investment spending worldwide, and the continuing deglobalisation towards a multipolar world, with the Indo-Pacific region emerging as the main growth driver. We also address a theme, that cannot escape anyone’s notice: artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on our economies, with all the necessary caveats due to the uncertainties surrounding this technology.

Main investment opportunities
for 2025

Credit

Credit

Credit: serving as a liquidity provider in a tighter liquidity environment

The energy transition

The energy transition

The energy transition:  a strategic imperative

European sovereignty

European sovereignty

European sovereignty:  a strength in a changing world

Value-add real estate

Value-add real estate

Value-add real estate: Investing in a new era

Highlights

Over the next five years, AI investments are projected to reach around $1 trillion.

Apart from addressing climate issues, the energy transition offers a crucial competitive advantage in a context of deglobalisation.

Europe now has a leg up on the two necessary conditions for delivering financial performance in the coming decades: the integration of extra financial criteria and a strong position in relation to a number of structural growth megatrends.

Changes in society emerging in the post-pandemic world, coupled with valuation adjustments and the scarcity of financing, are creating significant investment opportunities through change-of-use real estate schemes.

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