Globalised capitalism in its current form - a quest for infinite growth made possible by the continuous fall in interest rates over the last 40 years and the over-optimisation made possible by globalisation - is dysfunctional to the point of threatening the human presence on this planet. This model has damaged biodiversity and the climate, increased inequality ,created bubbles and led to capital misallocation. We are convinced that we are reaching the limits of this model and that the beginning of its successor are starting to emerge. In view of the profound changes required for the emergence of a more sustainable model, we believe it is important to try to understand the major fundamental trends that will shape the structure of our economies over the coming decades. All the more so if the world enters a phase of weak and less optimised growth.
So here's the second part of our letter: the ten trends we want to understand so that we can invest in the coming decades.
1. Demographics: the Indian Ocean as the future centre of the world
2. Deglobalisation: shifting from a Western-centred world to a multipolar world
3. Economic value creation: from efficiency to resilience
4. The risk approach: balancing risk-taking and insurance
5. Artificial intelligence: a revolution or an economic mirage?
6. The increasing weight of governments in economies
7. The debt problem
8. The boom in capital expenditure
9. Agriculture and urbanisation: a model that must pivot if it is to endure
10. Labour versus capital or the growth of inequality
Publication
CIO Letter – February 2025