Publication 07.07.2026

Market Outlook: a megacycle under pressure

Cécile Cabanis

Raphaël Thuin

Head of Capital Markets Strategies, Tikehau Capital

Thomas Friedberger

Nina Majstorovic

Strategist, Capital Markets Strategies, Tikehau Capital

At a glance

Since the start of the year, risk assets have continued to trend upward1despite an environment still marked by geopolitical tensions and the concerns they raise regarding inflation, growth and the direction of monetary policy.

While sources of risk have accumulated over the months, markets have nevertheless continued to find support in generally solid earnings releases2, as evidenced once again by first-quarter earnings reports.

In this publication, Raphaël Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategies, and Nina Majstorovic, Strategist, Capital Markets Strategies, offer macroeconomic and market analysis and share their views on credit and equity markets. You can also discover the analysis in video below.

1 Source : Tikehau Investment Management, Bloomberg, data as of 16 June 2026.

2 Source : Tikehau Investment Management, company filings, data as of 31 March 2026.

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Highlights

Europe is home to one of the world’s most highperforming defence ecosystems, whether in terms of major contractors or their entire supply chain.

The Old Continent is now demonstrating a desire to regain a certain degree of industrial autonomy.

The renewed focus on the United States in the field of AI must not obscure the fact that Europe holds leading positions in several critical links of the global technology value chain.

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