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Publication 07.09.2026

CIO Outlook
Looking ahead to 2027

Thomas Friedberger

Thomas Friedberger

Deputy CEO & Co-CIO, Tikehau Capital

Thomas Friedberger

Nina Majstorovic

Investment Strategist, Capital Markets Strategies, Tikehau Capital

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At a glance

Start, Middle or End of the Cycle?

Resilience is becoming the defining feature of the next investment cycle. After several decades dominated by the pursuit of efficiency, optimisation and abundant liquidity, the economic model is now entering a more demanding environment. This paradigm shift paves the way for a new cycle of massive capital expenditure, centred on the ‘4Ds’: Defence, Decarbonisation, Digitalisation and Deglobalisation.

In this edition of Tikehau Capital’s CIO Outlook, we explore the key themes that we believe will shape 2027 and beyond: resilience-driven inflation, the accelerating global decarbonisation cycle, artificial intelligence that is now put to the test for profitability, and private debt opportunities in a cycle that is now more advanced.

We also highlight the investment opportunities we see emerging from this backdrop, particularly across credit and real estate, where selectivity and investment discipline remain essential.

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What to expect in this outlook report?

Key Themes for 2027 and Beyond

This edition explores the major forces reshaping the investment landscape for 2027 and beyond. We examine how resilience is redefining inflation dynamics, why decarbonisation is accelerating in a more fragmented world, how artificial intelligence is entering a more challenging phase of its investment cycle, and why private debt continues to offer opportunities for selective investors despite recent concerns around the asset class.

Key investment opportunities in 2027

Against this backdrop, we highlight the areas where we see the most compelling opportunities.

Key investment opportunities
in 2027

Credit

Credit

Capturing opportunities across secondary private debt, special situations and subordinated financial debt

Real Estate

Real Estate

Unlocking value through value-add strategies, real estate financing and listed real estate

Highlights

“

We approach the AI theme with great discipline, remaining particularly vigilant regarding the valuation levels we are prepared to pay. Conversely, we deploy capital and resources to sub-themes which, in our view, enable us to capture AI-driven growth with a much more favourable risk-return profile.

“

We believe that, at the current stage of the market cycle, the alignment of interests and the rigour of valuation policies are two key differentiating factors amongst asset management firms.

“

Credit, taken as a whole, continues to offer investment opportunities that we consider attractive. More broadly, providing liquidity across the entire capital structure (senior debt, mezzanine financing, subordinated debt, etc.) to sound issuers facing liquidity needs can generate significant value creation.

“

Subordinated financial bonds continue to offer a yield pick-up over corporate bonds with similar ratings and therefore represent a genuine investment opportunity.

“

We have identified real estate as a key conviction, having undergone a significant valuation correction and, as such, is the asset class offering the greatest margin of safety.

Publication

CIO Outlook
Looking ahead to 2027

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07.09.2026 PDF (461KB)